EskiSignal
Macro and rates coverage for inflation, labor data, interest rates, central banks, bond yields, the yield curve, GDP, PMI, and financial conditions. Source-first, no-advice explainers.
Central Banks
Jackson Hole 2026 Preview: Warsh’s First Keynote and a Payments Agenda
The Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium has produced more market-moving central bank communication than any scheduled meeting outside the FOMC...
GDP & PMI
ISM vs S&P Global PMI: Two Surveys, Two Stories
Two purchasing managers’ indices cover the same US economy in the same month and regularly land on opposite sides of...
Bond Yields & Yield Curve
Bid-to-Cover and Indirect Bidders: How to Read a Treasury Auction
Every Treasury auction produces three numbers that tell you whether the world still wants to lend to the United States...
Bond Yields & Yield Curve
Term Premium: Why Long Yields Can Rise While the Fed Sits Still
The Fed sets the overnight rate. It does not set the ten-year yield. In 2026 that distinction stopped being academic...
Jobs & Labor
The Challenger Job Cuts Report: The Layoff Data That Lands Before Payrolls
One business day before the monthly jobs report, a Chicago outplacement firm publishes a tally of announced layoffs that moves...
Jobs & Labor
Household vs Establishment Survey: Why the Jobs Report Gives Two Different Answers
Every jobs report contains two employment numbers produced by two different surveys, and they regularly disagree — sometimes by hundreds...
Jobs & Labor
August 2026 Jobs Report Preview: What to Expect From July’s Payrolls Data
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July's employment numbers on August 7 — here's what economists are forecasting and why the Fed will be watching closely.
Bond Yields & Yield Curve
Why Are Treasury Yields Climbing Again? Tariffs, Inflation Expectations, and the Fed’s Dilemma
New Section 232 and Section 301 tariff actions are reviving inflation fears just as the Fed meets — how rising yields ripple into stocks, mortgages, and crypto.
GDP & PMI
What Is the PMI? Manufacturing vs Services, and Why 50 Is the Line
A single number released on the first business day of every month can move bond yields, the dollar, and equity...
GDP & PMI
What Is GDP and How Is It Measured? Advance, Second, and Third Estimates Explained
The GDP number that moves markets on release day is almost never the final word. It’s an estimate built from...