EskiSignal
Macro and rates coverage for inflation, labor data, interest rates, central banks, bond yields, the yield curve, GDP, PMI, and financial conditions. Source-first, no-advice explainers.
Interest Rates
The Lock-In Effect: Why 6.85% Mortgages Freeze Supply, Not Just Demand
The average 30-year contract rate reached 6.85% in the week ending 4 September, its highest since June 2025, and the...
Macro & Rates
Auto Loan Delinquencies Just Passed Their 2009 Peak
The share of US auto loan balances ninety or more days delinquent reached 5.5% in the second quarter of 2026....
Jobs & Labor
The Benchmark Revision: Why 79,000 Jobs Disappeared in a Single Line
Every payroll number published between April 2025 and now was an estimate drawn from a survey. Once a year the...
Central Banks
Ample Reserves: How the Fed Decides When QT Actually Stops
While the argument about whether the Fed raises rates this month occupies the front page, a quieter decision is being...
Inflation
How Much Inflation Does $100 Oil Actually Cause?
Brent settled at $101.21 this week, its first close above $100 since July. The immediate question for anyone watching the...
Central Banks
The 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord: The Agreement Warsh Wants to Rewrite
Most of the arguments about Federal Reserve independence being made this month are really arguments about a two-paragraph press release...
Bond Yields & Yield Curve
The Independence Premium: When Bond Markets Price Politics, Not Inflation
The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.85% this week, its highest level since October 2023. The conventional explanation is inflation: oil...
Central Banks
September 2026 FOMC Preview: What Would Have to Change for a Cut
Outcome — 16 September 2026: The FOMC raised the target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in a unanimous...
GDP & PMI
Advance, Second, Third: Why the GDP Number Keeps Changing
The GDP figure that leads the news is an estimate built from incomplete data, and it will be revised at...
Central Banks
Jackson Hole 2026 Preview: Warsh’s First Keynote and a Payments Agenda
Update — 7 October 2026: This preview was published before the 27–29 August symposium. Three weeks later, on 16 September,...
