EskiSignal
Macro and rates coverage for inflation, labor data, interest rates, central banks, bond yields, the yield curve, GDP, PMI, and financial conditions. Source-first, no-advice explainers.
Interest RatesMacro & Rates
What Happens When the Fed Holds Rates? The Hold, Explained
A Fed 'hold' leaves rates unchanged - but the statement, dot plot, and tone can still move markets. Here is what a hold means and what it affects.
Bond Yields & Yield CurveMacro & Rates
Yield Curve Inversion Explained: What 2s10s Really Signals
A yield curve inversion is when short-term Treasury yields rise above long-term ones. Here is what the 2s10s spread signals - and what it does not.
InflationMacro & Rates
PCE vs CPI: The Two U.S. Inflation Gauges Explained
CPI and PCE are both U.S. inflation gauges, but they differ in scope, weighting, and which one the Fed targets. Here is the plain-English comparison.
Central BanksMacro & Rates
June 2026 FOMC Meeting: What to Watch in the Decision and Dot Plot
The FOMC meets June 16-17, 2026 with a fresh dot plot. Here is the schedule, the context from April, and the signals markets are watching. No investment advice.
Jobs & LaborMacro & Rates
May 2026 Jobs Report: 172,000 Added, Unemployment Steady at 4.3%
The U.S. added 172,000 jobs in May 2026, beating forecasts, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Here is the source-linked breakdown and what to watch next.
InflationMacro & Rates
May 2026 CPI Report: Inflation Hit 4.2% as Energy Prices Surged
The May 2026 CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year, a three-year high, driven mostly by energy. Core inflation was a calmer 2.9%. Here is the source-linked breakdown.
Central BanksMacro & Rates
June 2026 FOMC Meeting: What to Expect on June 16–17 and How Markets Could React
FOMC June 16-17, 2026. Decision + dot plot at 2:00 p.m. ET June 17. Hold expected. What to watch in Warsh's press conference and how markets could react.
CPI & Inflation DatesInflationMacro & Rates
May 2026 CPI Preview: What to Watch When Inflation Reports June 10 at 8:30 AM
May 2026 CPI releases June 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET. April was 3.8% YoY. Consensus 3.2-3.6%. Last inflation data before June 16-17 FOMC. What to watch.
Interest RatesMacro & Rates
Will Mortgage Rates Go Down in 2026? What the 10-Year Yield and Fed Show
30-year mortgage is 6.59% (May 28). MBA forecasts 6.50% for 2026. What pushes rates lower, what keeps them stuck, and next Fed checkpoints.
InflationMacro & Rates
IRS Layoffs 2025–2026: What DOGE Staff Cuts Mean for Refunds and Tax Processing
DOGE-driven IRS cuts reduced staff by ~26,000. Refund delays are real: 3-5 weeks for e-file, 8-12+ weeks for paper. Full breakdown and what's next.
