The current US Treasury yield curve from 1-month bills to 30-year bonds, compared with a month ago and a year ago, plus the spreads markets watch for recession signals, TIPS breakeven inflation, and a calculator that shows what a T-bill is worth after tax compared with a CD or savings account.
Treasury yields by maturity
| Maturity | Oct 9 | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mo | 4.13% | -1 bp | +9 bp | +32 bp | -7 bp |
| 3 Mo | 4.25% | +2 bp | +6 bp | +30 bp | +22 bp |
| 6 Mo | 4.32% | +2 bp | +5 bp | +31 bp | +49 bp |
| 1 Yr | 4.47% | +3 bp | +1 bp | +30 bp | +81 bp |
| 2 Yr | 4.80% | +5 bp | -3 bp | +37 bp | +120 bp |
| 3 Yr | 4.89% | +4 bp | -7 bp | +40 bp | +130 bp |
| 5 Yr | 5.02% | +3 bp | -4 bp | +41 bp | +128 bp |
| 7 Yr | 5.13% | +2 bp | -4 bp | +42 bp | +121 bp |
| 10 Yr | 5.24% | +2 bp | -4 bp | +41 bp | +110 bp |
| 20 Yr | 5.65% | +1 bp | -2 bp | +37 bp | +95 bp |
| 30 Yr | 5.60% | 0 bp | -3 bp | +32 bp | +88 bp |
Real yields and breakeven inflation
TIPS real yields and the breakeven rate — the nominal yield minus the real yield at the same maturity. Breakevens include inflation and liquidity risk premiums, so they are an approximate, not exact, read on expected CPI inflation.
| Maturity | Nominal | Real (TIPS) | Breakeven |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Yr | 5.02% | 2.68% | 2.34% |
| 7 Yr | 5.13% | 2.79% | 2.34% |
| 10 Yr | 5.24% | 2.91% | 2.33% |
| 20 Yr | 5.65% | 3.17% | 2.48% |
| 30 Yr | 5.60% | 3.32% | 2.28% |
T-bill rates and tax-equivalent yield
T-bill interest is subject to federal income tax but exempt from state and local income tax. To match a T-bill after tax, a fully taxable CD or savings account has to pay more — how much more depends on your state rate.
| Bill | Bank discount | Coupon equivalent |
|---|---|---|
| 4-week | 3.96% | 4.03% |
| 6-week | 3.96% | 4.03% |
| 8-week | 3.97% | 4.05% |
| 13-week | 4.06% | 4.16% |
| 17-week | 4.11% | 4.22% |
| 26-week | 4.18% | 4.33% |
| 52-week | 4.26% | 4.46% |
How to read the yield curve
The yield curve plots Treasury yields against maturity. Normally it slopes upward, because lenders want more compensation for tying money up longer. When short-term yields rise above long-term yields the curve is inverted. The two spreads most often cited are the 10-year minus the 2-year, and the 10-year minus the 3-month, which is the version the New York Fed uses in its recession-probability model.
Inversions have preceded most US recessions since the 1960s, but the lead time has varied from months to years, and the signal has produced false alarms. Treat the curve as one input, not a forecast.
What moves the curve
The front end tracks expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy rate. The long end reflects expected rates over many years plus a term premium for bearing inflation and supply risk. That is why long yields can rise while the Fed does nothing — and why a curve can steepen because short rates fall (a bull steepener) or because long rates rise (a bear steepener), two very different signals.
T-bills, CDs and state tax
Interest on Treasury bills is taxed federally but exempt from state and local income tax. CD and savings interest is taxed at both levels. In a state with a meaningful income tax, a T-bill can beat a CD with a higher headline rate. The calculator converts a bill’s coupon-equivalent yield into the fully taxable rate you would need to earn the same amount after tax.
Bills are sold at a discount and mature at face value; the difference is the interest. The bank discount rate understates the true return because it is calculated on face value over a 360-day year, which is why Treasury also publishes the coupon-equivalent (investment) yield shown in the table.
Related EskiSignal guides
- Yield Curve Inversion Explained: What 2s10s Really Signals
- Term Premium: Why Long Yields Can Rise While the Fed Sits Still
- Bid-to-Cover and Indirect Bidders: How to Read a Treasury Auction
This tool is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial, investment or tax advice. Always verify figures with the official source before making financial decisions.
