EskiSignal

The Independence Premium: When Bond Markets Price Politics, Not Inflation

The Independence Premium: When Bond Markets Price Politics, Not Inflation

September 10, 2026

The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.85% this week, its highest level since October 2023. The conventional explanation is inflation: oil...

Term Premium: Why Long Yields Can Rise While the Fed Sits Still

Term Premium: Why Long Yields Can Rise While the Fed Sits Still

August 10, 2026

The Fed sets the overnight rate. It does not set the ten-year yield. In 2026 that distinction stopped being academic...