EskiSignal
Central Banks
The 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord: The Agreement Warsh Wants to Rewrite
Most of the arguments about Federal Reserve independence being made this month are really arguments about a two-paragraph press release...
Bond Yields & Yield Curve
The Independence Premium: When Bond Markets Price Politics, Not Inflation
The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.85% this week, its highest level since October 2023. The conventional explanation is inflation: oil...
Central Banks
September 2026 FOMC Preview: What Would Have to Change for a Cut
The Fed has held rates since the spring under a chair who took office in May, with a June dot...
Central Banks
Jackson Hole 2026 Preview: Warsh’s First Keynote and a Payments Agenda
The Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium has produced more market-moving central bank communication than any scheduled meeting outside the FOMC...
CalendarCentral Bank Dates & Speakers
June 2026 FOMC Recap: Fed Holds, Dot Plot Flips Hawkish in Warsh’s Debut
The Fed held rates 12-0 in June 2026, but the dot plot flipped hawkish - erasing the 2026 cut and lifting the median to ~3.8% in Kevin Warsh's first meeting.
Interest RatesMacro & Rates
When Will the Fed Cut Rates in 2026? What the FOMC Needs to See
Fed holds at 3.50-3.75% for 3 straight meetings. June 16-17 likely a hold. The 4 conditions required before a cut, and what to watch next.
