EskiSignal
Central Banks
The 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord: The Agreement Warsh Wants to Rewrite
Most of the arguments about Federal Reserve independence being made this month are really arguments about a two-paragraph press release...
Bond Yields & Yield Curve
The Independence Premium: When Bond Markets Price Politics, Not Inflation
The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.85% this week, its highest level since October 2023. The conventional explanation is inflation: oil...
Economic Calendar
September 2026 Economic Calendar: Every Date That Moves Markets
September brings a rate decision with fresh projections, two full inflation reports, a jobs report, and quarterly expiry and rebalancing...
Central Banks
September 2026 FOMC Preview: What Would Have to Change for a Cut
Outcome — 16 September 2026: The FOMC raised the target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in a unanimous...
Market Holidays & Hours
Labor Day 2026 Market Hours: Is the Stock Market Open on September 7?
The first Monday in September closes US equity markets entirely, and the week around it has a distinct volume and...
GDP & PMI
Advance, Second, Third: Why the GDP Number Keeps Changing
The GDP figure that leads the news is an estimate built from incomplete data, and it will be revised at...
Why Stocks Move
When Capex Eats Cash Flow: Reading Hyperscaler Free Cash Flow in 2026
For a decade the largest technology companies were defined by cash generation so abundant that the main question was what...
Earnings Reports
Nvidia Q2 FY2027 Earnings Preview: The Lines That Matter
Nvidia reports on August 26, and the number that matters is not revenue. It is the guide, the gross margin...
Earnings Reports
Useful Life: The Depreciation Argument Sitting Under the AI Capex Debate
An accounting assumption buried in the notes to the financial statements determines a meaningful share of reported profit at the...
Central Banks
Jackson Hole 2026 Preview: Warsh’s First Keynote and a Payments Agenda
Update — 7 October 2026: This preview was published before the 27–29 August symposium. Three weeks later, on 16 September,...
