EskiSignal
Trends & Regimes
Midterm Years Are the Weakest Year of the Cycle: The Data Before November 3
Americans vote on 3 November. The statistic that will be quoted at every point between now and then is that...
Insider & Institutional
Reading a BDC Portfolio: The Early Warning Signals in Private Credit
Private credit is a market of somewhere between $1.5 and $2 trillion that does not report daily prices, does not...
Interest Rates
The Lock-In Effect: Why 6.85% Mortgages Freeze Supply, Not Just Demand
The average 30-year contract rate reached 6.85% in the week ending 4 September, its highest since June 2025, and the...
Commodities
Gold at $4,395 With Yields at 4.85%: A Relationship That Stopped Working
For most of the past two decades, one relationship explained the gold price better than any other: gold falls when...
Corporate Events
The AI Buildout Went to the Bond Market: $225 Billion and a 100-Year Bond
Between 2020 and 2024, the five largest hyperscalers issued roughly $35 billion of bonds a year between them. These are...
Macro & Rates
Auto Loan Delinquencies Just Passed Their 2009 Peak
The share of US auto loan balances ninety or more days delinquent reached 5.5% in the second quarter of 2026....
Jobs & Labor
The Benchmark Revision: Why 79,000 Jobs Disappeared in a Single Line
Every payroll number published between April 2025 and now was an estimate drawn from a survey. Once a year the...
Central Banks
Ample Reserves: How the Fed Decides When QT Actually Stops
While the argument about whether the Fed raises rates this month occupies the front page, a quieter decision is being...
Inflation
How Much Inflation Does $100 Oil Actually Cause?
Brent settled at $101.21 this week, its first close above $100 since July. The immediate question for anyone watching the...
Commodities
The $102 Diesel Crack: Why Refining Margins, Not Crude, Set Your Grocery Bill
Crude oil gets the headlines. The number that has actually broken records this year sits one step downstream: the US...
